Tata Institute of Fundamental Research
Modelling Uncertainty: A Tale That Tails Tell
VSRP Talk
Speaker:
Sandeep K Juneja
Organiser:
Ramprasad Saptharishi
Date:
Tuesday, 6 Jun 2017, 11:00 to 12:00
Venue:
AG-66 (Lecture Theatre)
(Scan to add to calendar)
Abstract:
In this non-technical talk, we discuss uncertainty – why it needs to be modelled – the role of probability theory, brief history of probability, and some of its popular applications. We focus especially on modelling tail events - events that occur with small probability but can lead to catastrophic consequences. For last two centuries, many natural and social phenomenon were thought to follow the light-tailed Normal distribution or the `Bell Curve’. Lately, particularly in social settings, one sees fat-tailed distributions. In this talk, we also shed light on the underlying principles governing these distributions.
| Speaker: | Sandeep K Juneja |
| Organiser: | Ramprasad Saptharishi |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6 Jun 2017, 11:00 to 12:00 |
| Venue: | AG-66 (Lecture Theatre) |
(Scan to add to calendar)
Abstract:
In this non-technical talk, we discuss uncertainty – why it needs to be modelled – the role of probability theory, brief history of probability, and some of its popular applications. We focus especially on modelling tail events - events that occur with small probability but can lead to catastrophic consequences. For last two centuries, many natural and social phenomenon were thought to follow the light-tailed Normal distribution or the `Bell Curve’. Lately, particularly in social settings, one sees fat-tailed distributions. In this talk, we also shed light on the underlying principles governing these distributions.